O tal terceiro homem

Until last month, François Bayrou presented himself to the French electorate as a black sheep. He accused the “big media” of marginalizing him from its newspapers and broadcasts, in favor of his two main adversaries, the socialist Ségolène Royal and the centre-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy.

But, as the polls showed this week, Mr Bayrou is likely to lose his outsider condition, becoming the big star in French presidential election. After reaching 23% of the voting intentions – according to the pollster IFOP -, same score as his rival Ms Royal, Bayrou was brought to the front-page of the most important newspapers and magazines.

Like Jean-Marie Le Pen did in 2002, Mr Bayrou plays the “third man” role. Exploring the disenchantment of French electors with the two-party political system, Mr Bayrou defends the end of the cleavage between left and right. His centrist discourse allowed him to gain supporters from every ideological field, from De Gaulle’s fans to ecologists.

Cécile Duport, 33, identifies herself as a “centre-leftist”. Since her early teenage she has supported the Socialist Party. But her deception with the former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, who decided to quit political life when he was defeated by Le Pen in the last ballot, led her to join Mr Bayrou’s party, the UDF (union for French democracy).

“I was tired about the way the PS elephants make politics”, she said, in referring to the leaders of the French socialist party. “They are always thinking about their careers, unlike Bayrou, who tries to humanize the campaign as much as possible. Besides that, I don’t believe anymore in left or right. What France needs is unity, not division.”

However, Mr Bayrou’s aspiration to form a coalition government has been heavily criticized those last days. Some analysts, such as Xavier Darcos, France’s in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), say that Mr Bayrou is likely to follow the path of Romano Prodi, Italian prime minister. According to Mr Darcos, the centrist candidate should struggle to form a solid majority in the Parliament.

For Benjamin Slama, 22, who studies law in the University of Paris, the analogy with Mr Prodi is an equivocated strategy developed by Mr Bayrou’s opponents. “They want to hide the fact that François Bayrou is the only candidate able to build a unity government and fight the high public debt”, he argued.

Slama reckons that, once he is elected, Mr Bayrou will invite politicians from both the PS and the UMP, the centre-right party, to join the UDF. “It will become soon France’s biggest and most respectful party. So that the project dreamt by our former president Valéry Giscard d’Estaing will finally come true.”

This hope is shared by Simon Gay, a retired lawyer who, at the age of 64, decided to join Mr Bayrou, thanks to the candidate’s projects for the environmental issues. Mr. Gay is actually member of the minuscule Cap 21, whose candidate, the former Minister of Environment Corinne Lepage renounced last Monday to support Mr Bayrou.

“Bayrou understand that ecology is a great opportunity for us to create millions of jobs. In his program, he promised that he’ll change the tax legislation in order to punish those who contaminate land, water and air, and stimulate sustainable projects” he said. “When he talks about environment, he seems more realistic than Ségolène but less pragmatic than Nicolas Sarkozy. He found the right point; that’s why he is so attacked.” João Rocha Lima